| # Known Issues — PumpFun Launch-to-Graduation Corpus |
|
|
| This document is the authoritative, complete record of every data-quality |
| issue found in this corpus, how it was confirmed, its exact scale, and how |
| to handle it. Every number below was independently verified by direct |
| querying against the real data — nothing here is assumed or inherited |
| without a check. |
|
|
| **Read this before running any analysis.** Several items below are not |
| optional to handle correctly — skipping them will produce silently wrong |
| results, not an error. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## 1. Fixed issues (already corrected in `tokens.parquet`) |
|
|
| ### 1.1 Mayhem-mode 2B-supply concentration bug |
|
|
| Mayhem Mode tokens mint 2,000,000,000 tokens, double the standard |
| 1,000,000,000 — but concentration percentages (`initial_top1/5/10_pct`, |
| `dev_buy_pct`) were originally computed against a hardcoded 1B-supply |
| assumption for *every* token, mayhem or not. Proof of the bug: pre-fix, |
| `initial_top10_pct` reached values up to 200% for mayhem tokens — a |
| mathematically impossible percentage. |
|
|
| - **Scale:** 109,561 tokens (~12.7% of the corpus) |
| - **Fix applied:** `*_corrected` columns (`initial_top1_pct_corrected`, |
| `initial_top5_pct_corrected`, `initial_top10_pct_corrected`, |
| `dev_buy_pct_corrected`, `supply_bug_corrected`) — **use these, not the |
| originals**, for any concentration analysis. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## 2. Unfixable, excluded issues |
|
|
| ### 2.1 Bonding-curve-balance leak |
|
|
| A separate, smaller set of tokens show impossible concentration values |
| (median `top1_pct` 98.8%, up to 129.3% at top10) caused by a check meant to |
| exclude the bonding curve's own token balance from the "largest holder" |
| calculation failing to fire. Confirmed via correlation: `top1_pct` |
| correlates 0.71 with curve balance at first trade for affected tokens, vs. |
| -0.02 for unaffected tokens. |
|
|
| - **Scale:** 1,486 tokens, concentrated in a Jun 23-24 window tied to a |
| burst of clone/factory-launch creator activity |
| - **Handling:** No correct value can be recovered — these rows are |
| **flagged via `top10_pct_suspect`, and should be excluded**, not |
| corrected or imputed. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## 3. Trade-level data issues (`trades.parquet`) |
|
|
| ### 3.1 `sol_amount` internally inconsistent with `token_amount x price_sol` |
| |
| For a genuine subset of trade rows, `sol_amount` does not match |
| `token_amount x price_sol` — in the worst cases, off by up to ~39,000,000x. |
| Root cause not fully diagnosed (a units/decimals mismatch somewhere in |
| ingestion is a plausible candidate, not confirmed). |
|
|
| - **Scale:** 1,136,321 rows (3.38% of 33,581,765) |
| - **Detection:** flag any row where |
| `sol_amount / (token_amount * price_sol)` falls outside `[0.01, 100]` |
| - **Handling:** exclude from any SOL-denominated computation (volume, P&L, |
| leaderboards). This filter is large enough to fully distort a naive |
| top-wallet ranking if skipped — confirmed during this project's own |
| research. |
|
|
| ### 3.2 `sol_amount` / `price_sol` NULL (missing, not corrupted — distinct issue) |
|
|
| Separately from §3.1, a real share of trades have `sol_amount` and |
| `price_sol` as NULL rather than wrong — the price was simply never |
| captured for that trade. |
|
|
| - **Scale:** 2,360,061 rows (7.03%) |
| - **Pattern, confirmed via direct investigation:** |
| - Heavily front-loaded in time — the corpus's first ~10 days carry a |
| disproportionate share, **peaking at 33.6%/45.3% null on Jun 9-10** |
| (the same 2-day window as the holder-count break, §5.1 — an |
| interesting coincidence, not proven to share a root cause). |
| - **Not** tied to trade direction (buy 7.3% vs. sell 6.7% — similar) or |
| to a specific ingestion source. |
| - **A whole-token phenomenon, not scattered per-trade gaps**: of ~20,300 |
| affected mints, over 99.8% are tokens where *every* trade is |
| null-price, not a handful of trades within an otherwise-fine token. |
| - Skews toward very early trades in a token's life (median ~20 min |
| post-launch among null rows, vs. ~2.4h corpus-wide). |
| - **Handling:** flagged via `sol_price_missing` — kept deliberately separate |
| from `sol_amount_suspect` (§3.1) so the two issues are never conflated. |
| |
| ### 3.3 Non-human wallet contamination |
|
|
| The address `BwWK17cbHxwWBKZkUYvzxLcNQ1YVyaFezduWbtm2de6s` is the Solana |
| System Program, confirmed via block explorer (Owner: System Program, |
| isOnCurve: FALSE) — not a market participant. |
|
|
| - **Scale:** 6,690,901 trade rows (19.92% of all trades), touching ~35% of |
| all mints in the corpus |
| - **Handling:** **exclude this address from any wallet-derived feature** — |
| unique wallet counts, wallet concentration, P&L leaderboards, wash |
| -trading signals. Left in, it silently inflates unique-wallet counts by |
| one and contaminates every wallet-concentration metric on a third of the |
| corpus. |
|
|
| ### 3.4 `curve_pct_depleted` / `curve_pct_depleted_eob` values outside [0,100]% |
| |
| Both the per-trade (`trades.curve_pct_depleted`) and end-of-bucket |
| (`snapshots.curve_pct_depleted_eob`) versions of this field show values |
| outside the theoretically valid [0,100]% range. |
|
|
| - **Scale:** 1,215,810 trade rows (3.62%), 730,670 snapshot rows (2.71%) |
| - **Magnitude, confirmed via direct distribution check:** all bad values |
| are capped at **exactly 110.0**, with 99.95%+ of them barely over the |
| 100% boundary (in the 100-200 bucket, essentially none above 200) — this |
| looks like a bounded, designed overshoot mechanism, not open-ended |
| corruption. |
| - **Mayhem-mode correlation:** real but weak (5.33% bad for mayhem tokens |
| vs. 3.26% non-mayhem, ~1.6x) — too weak to be the primary mechanism; the |
| known supply bug (§1.1) produces a much starker gap when it's the actual |
| cause, confirmed via a synthetic test during this project's own research. |
| - **Temporal pattern (the dominant signal):** flat and low (0.02%-1.7%) |
| for the entire corpus from Jun 5 through Jul 2, then **jumps sharply to |
| 8-11% starting Jul 4 and holds through the corpus end (Jul 14)**. |
| - **Jul 3 is a confirmed one-day gap** — zero recorded trades that day, |
| due to a websocket collection outage. This explains the missing day |
| itself. It does **not**, by itself, fully explain why the badness rate |
| shifted upward and stayed elevated for the ten days following recovery — |
| whether that reflects a config/version change made during outage |
| recovery, a platform-side change coinciding with the same window, or |
| something else has not been further diagnosed. |
| - **Handling:** treat as a fifth, distinct regime break (§5.5). Any model |
| or analysis using curve-derived features (`curve_velocity`, |
| `curve_accel`, `curve_pct_depleted_at_horizon`) should account for this |
| shift, especially for the final third of the collection window. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## 4. `wallet_stats.parquet` reliability — read this before using this table at all |
| |
| This table's own activity/volume columns cannot be trusted without |
| independent verification. |
| |
| - **Systematic cross-check** (100,000 sampled wallets against a live |
| recount from `trades.parquet`): only **37.7% exact match** on |
| `total_trades` (59.7% exact match on `tokens_traded`). Mean ratio of |
| (real / reported) trades = **15.9x**, median = **2x**, max = **16,055x**. |
| - **Root cause, confirmed via a targeted diagnostic distinguishing three |
| competing hypotheses:** a **stale snapshot**, not a truncated |
| aggregation window or a random sampling bug. The discrepancy ratio |
| climbs monotonically from ~3.3x (wallets whose last real trade fell in |
| the corpus's first week) to ~46.2x (wallets whose last real trade fell |
| in the final week) — the exact signature of a table built once, early or |
| mid-collection, and never regenerated. |
| - **What is affected:** `tokens_traded`, `total_trades`, |
| `total_buy_volume_sol`, `total_sell_volume_sol`. **Do not use these four |
| columns for any activity-volume analysis** — recompute directly from |
| `trades.parquet` instead (see `quickstart.py` for the pattern). |
| - **What is not (confirmed) affected:** `first_seen_at`/`last_seen_at` |
| timestamps were not part of the cross-check that found this issue — they |
| may still be usable, though they were not independently verified either. |
| Treat with appropriate caution, not blind trust . |
| |
| --- |
| |
| ## 4.5. outcome_label has no 'rug' value — using it as one will silently |
| return zero rows. Real values: dead, pump_dump, slow_bleed, |
| major_pump, minor_pump, sustained. quickstart.py's Section 5 |
| (Gini-vs-rug metric) filters on outcome_label = 'rug' and is currently |
| broken as a result. Use rug_detected (boolean, in postgard_outcomes.parquet) |
| for a direct rug flag, or group dead/pump_dump/slow_bleed as "failed" |
| outcomes if you want the broader category. Fix pending. |
| |
| ## 4.55. migrations.parquet.pool_address contains synthetic sentinel values, |
| not real pool addresses, for ~25% of rows. synthetic_graduation_queue |
| (1,380 rows) marks graduations queued but not yet matched to a real pool; |
| backfilled_from_pumpswap_trade (69 rows) marks pool addresses |
| reconstructed after the fact from PumpSwap trade data rather than observed |
| directly at migration time. Filter these out if you need a real on-chain |
| pool address, or check pool_address NOT IN ('synthetic_graduation_queue', |
| 'backfilled_from_pumpswap_trade') before joining downstream. |
| |
| **Items 4.5 and 4.55 reported by M. Huzaifa (July 2026) — thank you.** |
| |
| ## 5. Regime breaks / non-stationarity |
| |
| Five separate, independently-confirmed step-changes exist within the same |
| 39-day corpus. Any cross-corpus time comparison, or any train/test split |
| whose boundary straddles one of these dates, should account for it. |
| |
| ### 5.1 Jun 9-10: `initial_holder_count` hard-cap change |
| |
| Maximum value changed from exactly 54 to exactly 20 across a 2-day |
| transition, and never reverted. `initial_top1/5/10_pct` move in lockstep, |
| almost certainly because holder count is the denominator context for those |
| percentiles. Ruled out as a collection outage — hourly trade volume across |
| Jun 5-20 shows no gap at this boundary. Working hypothesis, not |
| independently confirmed: Solana's `getTokenLargestAccounts` RPC method is |
| natively capped at 20 accounts by protocol design, and this date marks a |
| change in (or loss of a workaround for) that native limit. **Left unfixed |
| in the data** — this is a real, permanent feature of the corpus, not |
| something to patch. |
| |
| ### 5.2 Jun 20-22: Mayhem Mode rollout |
| |
| A new token type (2B supply, see §1.1) did not exist before this date and |
| ramped to ~28-30% of new launches within three weeks. A real product |
| change, not a bug — but means token-type composition is not stationary |
| across the collection window. |
| |
| ### 5.3 Jun 23-24: Second concentration-bug window |
| |
| Overlaps with the bonding-curve-balance leak (§2.1) and a burst of |
| clone-launch creator activity in the same window. |
| |
| ### 5.4 Jun 24-25: Platform-wide silence-rate drop |
| |
| The share of tokens with zero post-launch trading activity dropped from |
| ~96.4% to ~88.9%. Checked and ruled out as a polling-cadence artifact |
| (sampling interval unchanged across the boundary) — most likely reflects |
| genuinely rising launch volume on the platform. |
| |
| ### 5.5 Jul 3-4: Websocket outage + `curve_pct_depleted` shift |
| |
| See §3.4 for full detail. Jul 3 is a confirmed collection outage (zero |
| trades that day). The subsequent shift in `curve_pct_depleted` badness |
| rate (flat <2% before, 8-11% after, sustained through corpus end) is |
| temporally associated with this outage but not fully root-caused beyond |
| that. |
| |
| --- |
| |
| ## 6. Schema & naming gotchas |
| |
| - **`outcome_label = 'dead'`** (a token that graduated, then died within |
| 24h) is a **completely different population** from a token that never |
| graduated at all. Same word, two unrelated meanings across different |
| parts of this corpus — do not conflate them. |
| - **`postgard_outcomes.parquet`'s real exported schema does not match** |
| older collector source-code comments. Fields like `label_time_top10_pct` |
| / `label_time_gini` are defined in source-level DDL but do **not** exist |
| in the actual exported file. Always verify against a live `DESCRIBE`, |
| never trust schema from code comments or documentation. |
| - **`postgard_snapshots.parquet` covers more distinct mints (5,701) than |
| a typical filtered target population** (e.g. graduated, non-mayhem |
| tokens is a smaller subset) — filter explicitly by your actual target |
| population; don't assume table membership implies population membership. |
| - **`v_tokens_bonding_curve` / `v_sol_bonding_curve`** (in `trades.parquet`) |
| are raw micro-token units, not human-scale token counts. A naive `/1e9` |
| conversion produces values off by orders of magnitude (though |
| correlations computed on the wrongly-scaled values remain valid, since |
| it's a consistent scaling error). The correct relationship is |
| `price_sol = (v_sol_bonding_curve / v_tokens_bonding_curve) / 1000`. |
| |
| --- |
| |
| ## 7. Modeling gotchas (not data bugs, but easy to leak on) |
| |
| - **`entry_price_20s_usd` / `entry_price_30s_usd` / `entry_price_1m_usd`** |
| are a near-perfect label proxy if used naively as predictive features. |
| Null rate is ~0.14-0.18% for graduated tokens vs. ~93.5-93.6% for |
| non-graduated tokens, with **no time-to-graduation gradient** — these |
| fields are populated almost exclusively *because* a token graduated, not |
| because of when. Suppressing the missingness indicator column is **not** |
| sufficient to prevent leakage — tree-based models (XGBoost, LightGBM) |
| learn native NaN split directions and will still effectively split on |
| "is this field present." If building any graduation-prediction model on |
| this corpus, exclude these three fields entirely rather than |
| indicator-suppress them. |
| - **`first_trade_price_sol`** was checked with the same methodology and is |
| **fine** — its null gap is small and roughly even across outcomes |
| (27.9% graduated vs. 25.5% non-graduated), not the same near-total |
| separator as the fields above. |
| |
| --- |
| |
| ## 8. What's confirmed clean (checked, not just assumed) |
| |
| - **`market_cap_sol` / `price_sol`** in `trades.parquet` are correctly |
| supply-invariant (derived from raw bonding-curve reserve ratios, not a |
| percentage-of-total-supply calculation) — confirmed clean of both the |
| mayhem-mode bug (§1.1) and the bonding-curve-balance leak (§2.1). Don't |
| assume every supply-related field is contaminated just because nearby |
| fields are — each was checked individually against its actual formula. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## 9. Tooling note (DuckDB users) |
|
|
| If querying this corpus with DuckDB, `USING SAMPLE N` (reservoir method) |
| has been observed to silently return 0 rows on filtered queries in some |
| environments, even though the identical query without the sample clause |
| returns thousands of rows — not root-caused against DuckDB internals, but |
| reproducible via direct A/B testing. `USING SAMPLE N` (bernoulli method) |
| throws an outright parser error when combined with a discrete row-count |
| target. Workaround that was verified to work correctly, including with |
| joins, at matching scale: use `setseed()` + `ORDER BY random()` + `LIMIT` |
| instead of `USING SAMPLE` entirely. |
|
|
