Daily Papers

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

For the large and chemically diverse GMTKN55 benchmark suite, we have studied the performance of density-corrected density functional theory (HF-DFT), compared to self-consistent DFT, for several pure and hybrid GGA and meta-GGA exchange-correlation (XC) functionals (PBE, BLYP, TPSS, SCAN) as a function of the percentage of HF exchange in the hybrid. The D4 empirical dispersion correction has been added throughout. For subsets dominated by dynamical correlation -- particularly noncovalent interaction subsets -- HF-DFT is highly beneficial, particularly at low HF exchange percentages. For subsets with significant static correlation (i.e., where a Hartree-Fock determinant is not a good zero-order wavefunction), HF-DFT may do more harm than good. While the self-consistent series show optima at or near 37.5% (i.e., 3/8) for all four XC functionals -- consistent with Grimme's proposal of the PBE38 functional -- HF-BnLYP-D4, HF-PBEn-D4, and HF-TPSSn-D4 all exhibit minima nearer 25% (i.e., 1/4). Intriguingly, for HF-SCANn-D4, the minimum is near 10%, but the weighted mean absolute error (WTMAD2) for GMTKN55 is only barely lower than that of HF-SCAN-D4 (i.e., where the post-HF step is a pure meta-GGA). The latter becomes an attractive option, only slightly more costly than pure Hartree-Fock, and devoid of adjustable parameters other than the three in the dispersion correction. Moreover, its WTMAD2 is only surpassed by the highly empirical M06-2X and by the combinatorically optimized empirical range-separated hybrids wB97X-V and wB97M-V.

Inverse design of RF passive components from S-parameters is a high-dimensional, ill-posed problem, and prior generative approaches are limited to single-layer binary-metallization structures. This paper presents an inverse design approach that generates passive components from partial S-parameter inputs on an 8times8 mm board discretized at 64times64 pixels with sub-pixel grayscale metallization across 1-20 GHz. The framework generates two-layer copper layouts with vias, with hard physical constraints on feed locations enforced through annealed Langevin projection, flexible multi-modal conditioning on partial S-parameter specifications, port locations, dielectric properties, reference topology, and variable port placement. Candidate designs are generated in seconds, with surrogate-predicted S-parameters matching targets to within 0.77 pm 1.28 dB weighted mean absolute error. We validate the approach with two fabricated designs on RO4003C: a manufacturable alternative to a hairpin filter whose coupling gaps violate fabrication rules, and a combline bandpass filter designed from scratch given only target S-parameters.

Upweighting high-quality data in LLM pretraining often improves performance, but in datalimited regimes, especially under overtraining, stronger upweighting increases repetition and can degrade performance. However, standard scaling laws do not reliably extrapolate across mixture recipes or under repetitions, making the selection for optimal data recipes at scaling underdetermined. To solve this, we introduce InfoLaw (Information Scaling Laws), a data-aware scaling framework that predicts loss from consumed tokens, model size, data mixture weights, and repetition. The key idea is to model pretraining as information accumulation, where quality controls information density and repetition induces scaledependent diminishing returns. We first collect the model performance after training on datasets that vary in scale, quality distribution, and repetition level. Then we build up the modeling for information so that information accurately predicts those model performance. InfoLaw predicts performance on unseen data recipes and larger scale runs (up to 7B, 425B tokens) with 0.15% mean and 0.96% max absolute error in loss, and it extrapolates reliably across overtraining levels, enabling efficient data-recipe selection under varying compute budgets.

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects. Unfortunately, this is challenging because, in practice, the test set includes (right) censored individuals, meaning we do not know when a censored individual actually experienced the event. In this paper, we explore various metrics to estimate MAE for survival datasets that include (many) censored individuals. Moreover, we introduce a novel and effective approach for generating realistic semi-synthetic survival datasets to facilitate the evaluation of metrics. Our findings, based on the analysis of the semi-synthetic datasets, reveal that our proposed metric (MAE using pseudo-observations) is able to rank models accurately based on their performance, and often closely matches the true MAE -- in particular, is better than several alternative methods.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in a variety of applications across many disciplines. Yet, their superior performance comes with the expensive cost of requiring correctly annotated large-scale datasets. Moreover, due to DNNs' rich capacity, errors in training labels can hamper performance. To combat this problem, mean absolute error (MAE) has recently been proposed as a noise-robust alternative to the commonly-used categorical cross entropy (CCE) loss. However, as we show in this paper, MAE can perform poorly with DNNs and challenging datasets. Here, we present a theoretically grounded set of noise-robust loss functions that can be seen as a generalization of MAE and CCE. Proposed loss functions can be readily applied with any existing DNN architecture and algorithm, while yielding good performance in a wide range of noisy label scenarios. We report results from experiments conducted with CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and FASHION-MNIST datasets and synthetically generated noisy labels.

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a new uncertainty-based scheme to improve the performance by reducing the mismatch. The connection also reveals implicit assumptions in other schemes such as averaging, task arithmetic, and Fisher-weighted averaging. Our new method gives consistent improvements for large language models and vision transformers, both in terms of performance and robustness to hyperparameters.

This study concentrates on evaluating the efficacy of Large Language Models (LLMs) in healthcare, with a specific focus on their application in personal anomalous health monitoring. Our research primarily investigates the capabilities of LLMs in interpreting and analyzing physiological data obtained from FDA-approved devices. We conducted an extensive analysis using anomalous physiological data gathered in a simulated low-air-pressure plateau environment. This allowed us to assess the precision and reliability of LLMs in understanding and evaluating users' health status with notable specificity. Our findings reveal that LLMs exhibit exceptional performance in determining medical indicators, including a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of less than 1 beat per minute for heart rate and less than 1% for oxygen saturation (SpO2). Furthermore, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for these evaluations remained below 1%, with the overall accuracy of health assessments surpassing 85%. In image analysis tasks, such as interpreting photoplethysmography (PPG) data, our specially adapted GPT models demonstrated remarkable proficiency, achieving less than 1 bpm error in cycle count and 7.28 MAE for heart rate estimation. This study highlights LLMs' dual role as health data analysis tools and pivotal elements in advanced AI health assistants, offering personalized health insights and recommendations within the future health assistant framework.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically pretrained in high precision but increasingly deployed with low-precision post-training quantization (PTQ). Recent studies have shown that using weight averaging during pretraining can improve PTQ performance compared with learning-rate decay, suggesting that it might provide a simple way to improve the pretraining-to-quantization transition. But the mechanism behind weight averaging remains insufficiently explained. This leads to inconsistent and fragile performance gains, thereby preventing practitioners from applying such a technique confidently. As a response, we formulate weight averaging as a trade-off between retaining training progress and improving robustness under perturbation. We further derive a continuous family of averaging kernels that unifies conventional strategies and achieves the Pareto frontier between the two competing goals. Critically, a theoretical framework for performing weight averaging under PTQ is developed. It can be shown that coarser quantization is more susceptible to perturbations, whereas finer quantization could be less affected. Thus, our results could provide unified theoretical guidance for performing weight averaging under different PTQ conditions. Experiments validate both the predicted behavior and the proposed averaging strategy. Code is available at https://github.com/MOFA-LAB/weight-averaging-for-ptq.

Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining lifespan from facial and whole-body images, alongside robust uncertainty quantification. We show that predictive uncertainty varies systematically with the true remaining lifespan, and that this uncertainty can be effectively modeled by learning a Gaussian distribution for each sample. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.48 years on an established Dataset, and further improves to 4.79 and 5.07 years MAE on two new, higher-quality datasets curated and published in this work. Importantly, our models provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as demonstrated by a bucketed expected calibration error of 0.62 years. While not intended for clinical deployment, these results highlight the potential of extracting medically relevant signals from images. We make all code and datasets available to facilitate further research.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

Metric space magnitude, an active field of research in algebraic topology, is a scalar quantity that summarizes the effective number of distinct points that live in a general metric space. The {\em weighting vector} is a closely-related concept that captures, in a nontrivial way, much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Recent work has demonstrated that when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. We recast this result and show the weighting vector may be viewed as a solution to a kernelized SVM. As one consequence, we apply this new insight to the task of outlier detection, and we demonstrate performance that is competitive or exceeds performance of state-of-the-art techniques on benchmark data sets. Under mild assumptions, we show the weighting vector, which has computational cost of matrix inversion, can be efficiently approximated in linear time. We show how nearest neighbor methods can approximate solutions to the minimization problems defined by SVMs.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

We study the best arm identification problem in a stochastic environment with a novel form of adversarial perturbations, which we coin Shifting Means. While classically the mean rewards of the K arms are stable in time, in Shifting Means only the gaps boldsymbolΔ between mean rewards are stable, while their common shift may be determined adversarially in each round. The objective of the learner is to identify the best arm with high probability while minimizing sample complexity (the fixed confidence setting). Handling shifts requires new tools: we show that algorithms employing a Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) stopping rule, including the popular Track-and-Stop, fail under time-varying shifts. Instead, we propose Importance Weights for Shifting Means (ISM). Assuming means bounded by U and σ^2-sub-Gaussian rewards, we show ISM to be δ-correct and to enjoy a sample complexity bound of order K (σ^2 + U^2) Δ_{min}^{-2} ln 1δ. We also present a matching (up to constant factors) worst-case lower bound and evaluate our results empirically.

In domain adaptation, maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) has been widely adopted as a discrepancy metric between the distributions of source and target domains. However, existing MMD-based domain adaptation methods generally ignore the changes of class prior distributions, i.e., class weight bias across domains. This remains an open problem but ubiquitous for domain adaptation, which can be caused by changes in sample selection criteria and application scenarios. We show that MMD cannot account for class weight bias and results in degraded domain adaptation performance. To address this issue, a weighted MMD model is proposed in this paper. Specifically, we introduce class-specific auxiliary weights into the original MMD for exploiting the class prior probability on source and target domains, whose challenge lies in the fact that the class label in target domain is unavailable. To account for it, our proposed weighted MMD model is defined by introducing an auxiliary weight for each class in the source domain, and a classification EM algorithm is suggested by alternating between assigning the pseudo-labels, estimating auxiliary weights and updating model parameters. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our weighted MMD over conventional MMD for domain adaptation.

Regression, the task of predicting a continuous scalar target y based on some features x is one of the most fundamental tasks in machine learning and statistics. It has been observed and theoretically analyzed that the classical approach, meansquared error minimization, can lead to suboptimal results when training neural networks. In this work, we propose a new method to improve the training of these models on regression tasks, with continuous scalar targets. Our method is based on casting this task in a different fashion, using a target encoder, and a prediction decoder, inspired by approaches in classification and clustering. We showcase the performance of our method on a wide range of real-world datasets.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

We present an end-to-end pipeline for estimating stellar parameters from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 12 spectra using a fully connected multitask neural network with residual blocks, whose hyperparameters are tuned via Bayesian optimization. The preprocessing pipeline includes per-spectrum standardization, RobustScaler normalization of the target variables -- effective temperature T_{eff}, metallicity [Fe/H], and surface gravity log g -- and data augmentation via Gaussian noise injection. On a held-out test set, the model achieved Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) of 59.76~K for T_{eff}, 0.103~dex for [Fe/H], and 0.130~dex for log g. Normalized against the full-scale range of each parameter, these results represent range-normalized errors between 1% and 3%, achieved with a highly efficient model complexity of approximately 540,000 trainable parameters. These results demonstrate that a compact residual multitask architecture, combined with principled signal preprocessing, provides a parameter-efficient solution for nonlinear parameter estimation in large-scale spectral datasets. In particular, the proposed model achieves competitive performance with substantially lower complexity than deeper neural network baselines.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

Many post-training quantization (PTQ) methods use layer-wise reconstruction, second-order proxy objectives, or activation-aware transformations to reduce quantization-induced error. Whether that error signal predicts the downstream functional impact of quantizing an individual attention projection has not been directly characterized. We sweep nine open-weight language models (1.3B--8B parameters; OPT, GPT-J, LLaMA-1/2/3, Mistral, Qwen 2.5) and quantize one attention projection at a time under round-to-nearest (RTN) and, for seven models, GPTQ at 3 and 4 bits, recording reconstruction error, perplexity change, and per-projection activation-weighted quantization error for 3,808 distinct measurements. We find: (1) within a given component type (Q, K, V, or O), reconstruction error explains less than 10% of the variance in perplexity sensitivity in 27 of 36 cases under RTN, with median R^2 = 0.044; (2) both component type and layer identity explain more variance than reconstruction error in all 9 models, with layer identity the strongest predictor in 7 of 9 models and component type strongest in the remaining 2; (3) value (V) projections are the most commonly dominant component, accounting for 38--51% of total positive Delta PPL in seven of nine models; (4) the dominant component is broadly preserved between RTN and GPTQ (5 of 7 cases); and (5) activation-weighted quantization error is a moderately better within-component predictor than reconstruction error for V projections specifically (median R^2 of 0.20 vs. 0.06). These findings indicate that relative weight reconstruction error alone is insufficient for sensitivity-aware bit allocation, and that V projections merit dedicated consideration in mixed-precision schemes.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

Metric space magnitude, an active subject of research in algebraic topology, originally arose in the context of biology, where it was used to represent the effective number of distinct species in an environment. In a more general setting, the magnitude of a metric space is a real number that aims to quantify the effective number of distinct points in the space. The contribution of each point to a metric space's global magnitude, which is encoded by the {\em weighting vector}, captures much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Surprisingly, when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector also serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. This allows the weighting vector to serve as the foundation of novel algorithms for classic machine learning tasks such as classification, outlier detection and active learning. We demonstrate, using experiments and comparisons on classic benchmark datasets, the promise of the proposed magnitude and weighting vector-based approaches.

We study the problem of designing minimax procedures in linear regression under the quantile risk. We start by considering the realizable setting with independent Gaussian noise, where for any given noise level and distribution of inputs, we obtain the exact minimax quantile risk for a rich family of error functions and establish the minimaxity of OLS. This improves on the known lower bounds for the special case of square error, and provides us with a lower bound on the minimax quantile risk over larger sets of distributions. Under the square error and a fourth moment assumption on the distribution of inputs, we show that this lower bound is tight over a larger class of problems. Specifically, we prove a matching upper bound on the worst-case quantile risk of a variant of the recently proposed min-max regression procedure, thereby establishing its minimaxity, up to absolute constants. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach by extending this result to all p-th power error functions for p in (2, infty). Along the way, we develop a generic analogue to the classical Bayesian method for lower bounding the minimax risk when working with the quantile risk, as well as a tight characterization of the quantiles of the smallest eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrix.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

The article presents and evaluates a custom loss function designed specifically for machine learning models used in algorithmic trading. Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity, the proposed Generalized Mean Absolute Directional Loss (GMADL) function produces superior results and has better numerical properties during optimization than classic regression and classification based loss functions. Better results correspond to higher risk-weighted returns based on buy and sell signals derived from forecasts generated by models trained using GMADL. In practice, GMADL improves model evaluation by aligning the learning objective with trading performance rather than generic error minimization or simple directional accuracy. Through additional parameterization, GMADL provides a flexible mechanism for adjusting the loss's sensitivity to different return magnitudes, which affects model evaluation consistency across various market regimes. This improves the selection of model configurations that are more consistent with performance-based criteria. Moreover, the implementation uses robust machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, to provide robust and scalable model evaluation across real-world financial data from different asset classes.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

In this work, we present a novel method for combining predictions of object detection models: weighted boxes fusion. Our algorithm utilizes confidence scores of all proposed bounding boxes to constructs the averaged boxes. We tested method on several datasets and evaluated it in the context of the Open Images and COCO Object Detection tracks, achieving top results in these challenges. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZFTurbo/Weighted-Boxes-Fusion

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Instruction tuned reasoning models are increasingly deployed with safety classifiers trained on frozen embeddings, assuming representation stability across model updates. We systematically investigate this assumption and find it fails: normalized perturbations of magnitude σ=0.02 (corresponding to approx 1^circ angular drift on the embedding sphere) reduce classifier performance from 85% to 50% ROC-AUC. Critically, mean confidence only drops 14%, producing dangerous silent failures where 72% of misclassifications occur with high confidence, defeating standard monitoring. We further show that instruction-tuned models exhibit 20% worse class separability than base models, making aligned systems paradoxically harder to safeguard. Our findings expose a fundamental fragility in production AI safety architectures and challenge the assumption that safety mechanisms transfer across model versions.

The paper introduces the weighted convolution, a novel approach to the convolution for signals defined on regular grids (e.g., 2D images) through the application of an optimal density function to scale the contribution of neighbouring pixels based on their distance from the central pixel. This choice differs from the traditional uniform convolution, which treats all neighbouring pixels equally. Our weighted convolution can be applied to convolutional neural network problems to improve the approximation accuracy. Given a convolutional network, we define a framework to compute the optimal density function through a minimisation model. The framework separates the optimisation of the convolutional kernel weights (using stochastic gradient descent) from the optimisation of the density function (using DIRECT-L). Experimental results on a learning model for an image-to-image task (e.g., image denoising) show that the weighted convolution significantly reduces the loss (up to 53% improvement) and increases the test accuracy compared to standard convolution. While this method increases execution time by 11%, it is robust across several hyperparameters of the learning model. Future work will apply the weighted convolution to real-case 2D and 3D image convolutional learning problems.

Standard neural networks struggle to generalize under distribution shifts in computer vision. Fortunately, combining multiple networks can consistently improve out-of-distribution generalization. In particular, weight averaging (WA) strategies were shown to perform best on the competitive DomainBed benchmark; they directly average the weights of multiple networks despite their nonlinearities. In this paper, we propose Diverse Weight Averaging (DiWA), a new WA strategy whose main motivation is to increase the functional diversity across averaged models. To this end, DiWA averages weights obtained from several independent training runs: indeed, models obtained from different runs are more diverse than those collected along a single run thanks to differences in hyperparameters and training procedures. We motivate the need for diversity by a new bias-variance-covariance-locality decomposition of the expected error, exploiting similarities between WA and standard functional ensembling. Moreover, this decomposition highlights that WA succeeds when the variance term dominates, which we show occurs when the marginal distribution changes at test time. Experimentally, DiWA consistently improves the state of the art on DomainBed without inference overhead.

Self-verification and aggregation have emerged as popular approaches for bridging the gap between pass@1 and pass@N. However, increasing the number of candidates does not consistently narrow the gap between final-answer accuracy and pass@N. To understand this limitation, we use ranking error to measure how reliably models distinguish their correct generations from incorrect ones. We show that ranking error admits a bias-variance decomposition, with both components shaped by algorithmic design choices and inference compute. Across our experiments, additional compute reduces variance, while bias initially decreases before approaching a plateau. Guided by this analysis, we introduce Scorpio, a simple and general method that jointly scores randomly grouped candidates. Across math, code, and puzzle benchmarks, Scorpio improves verification, tree search, and aggregation. For verification, Scorpio improves accuracy over the strongest baseline by up to 7 percentage points while matching or exceeding that baseline's peak accuracy with 17-42% lower inference cost. For tree search, using Scorpio to score partial solutions and select the final answer improves accuracy by up to 10 percentage points over prior methods. Finally, Scorpio improves the scaling of aggregation-based methods by 11 percentage points on coding tasks.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

In this paper, we present a simple yet effective provable method (named ABSGD) for addressing the data imbalance or label noise problem in deep learning. Our method is a simple modification to momentum SGD where we assign an individual importance weight to each sample in the mini-batch. The individual-level weight of sampled data is systematically proportional to the exponential of a scaled loss value of the data, where the scaling factor is interpreted as the regularization parameter in the framework of distributionally robust optimization (DRO). Depending on whether the scaling factor is positive or negative, ABSGD is guaranteed to converge to a stationary point of an information-regularized min-max or min-min DRO problem, respectively. Compared with existing class-level weighting schemes, our method can capture the diversity between individual examples within each class. Compared with existing individual-level weighting methods using meta-learning that require three backward propagations for computing mini-batch stochastic gradients, our method is more efficient with only one backward propagation at each iteration as in standard deep learning methods. ABSGD is flexible enough to combine with other robust losses without any additional cost. Our empirical studies on several benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Code is available at:\url{https://github.com/qiqi-helloworld/ABSGD/}

This study presents an explainable artificial intelligent (XAI) model for predicting pile driving vibrations in Bangkok's soft clay subsoil. A deep neural network was developed using a dataset of 1,018 real-world pile driving measurements, encompassing variations in pile dimensions, hammer characteristics, sensor locations, and vibration measurement axes. The model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.276, outperforming traditional empirical methods and other machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and CatBoost. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the model's predictions, revealing complex relationships between input features and peak particle velocity (PPV). Distance from the pile driving location emerged as the most influential factor, followed by hammer weight and pile size. Non-linear relationships and threshold effects were observed, providing new insights into vibration propagation in soft clay. A web-based application was developed to facilitate adoption by practicing engineers, bridging the gap between advanced machine learning techniques and practical engineering applications. This research contributes to the field of geotechnical engineering by offering a more accurate and nuanced approach to predicting pile driving vibrations, with implications for optimizing construction practices and mitigating environmental impacts in urban areas. The model and its source code are publicly available, promoting transparency and reproducibility in geotechnical research.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-based and surrogate model based (LIME) interpretations. Our analysis suggests that random seeds can adversely affect the consistency of models resulting in counterfactual interpretations. We propose a technique called Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (ASWA)and an extension called Norm-filtered Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (NASWA) which improves the stability of models over random seeds. With our ASWA and NASWA based optimization, we are able to improve the robustness of the original model, on average reducing the standard deviation of the model's performance by 72%.

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of ball bearings is an active area of research, where novel machine learning techniques are continuously being applied to predict degradation trends and anticipate failures before they occur. However, few studies have explicitly addressed the challenge of handling censored data, where information about a specific event (\eg mechanical failure) is incomplete or only partially observed. To address this issue, we introduce a novel and flexible method for early fault detection using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and RUL estimation using survival analysis that naturally supports censored data. We demonstrate our approach in the XJTU-SY dataset using a 5-fold cross-validation strategy across three different operating conditions. When predicting the time to failure for bearings under the highest load (C1, 12.0 kN and 2100 RPM) with 25% random censoring, our approach achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.7 minutes (95% CI = 13.6-15.8) using a linear CoxPH model, and an MAE of 12.6 minutes (95% CI = 11.8-13.4) using a nonlinear Random Survival Forests model, compared to an MAE of 18.5 minutes (95% CI = 17.4-19.6) using a linear LASSO model that does not support censoring. Moreover, our approach achieves a mean cumulative relative accuracy (CRA) of 0.7586 over 5 bearings under the highest load, which improves over several state-of-the-art baselines. Our work highlights the importance of considering censored data as part of the model design when building predictive models for early fault detection and RUL estimation.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

We present a memory and computation efficient ternary weight networks (TWNs) - with weights constrained to +1, 0 and -1. The Euclidian distance between full (float or double) precision weights and the ternary weights along with a scaling factor is minimized in training stage. Besides, a threshold-based ternary function is optimized to get an approximated solution which can be fast and easily computed. TWNs have shown better expressive abilities than binary precision counterparts. Meanwhile, TWNs achieve up to 16times model compression rate and need fewer multiplications compared with the float32 precision counterparts. Extensive experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and ImageNet datasets show that the TWNs achieve much better result than the Binary-Weight-Networks (BWNs) and the classification performance on MNIST and CIFAR-10 is very close to the full precision networks. We also verify our method on object detection task and show that TWNs significantly outperforms BWN by more than 10\% mAP on PASCAL VOC dataset. The pytorch version of source code is available at: https://github.com/Thinklab-SJTU/twns.

Meaningful scores for forecast verification are essential for developing reliable forecasts, and there has been much effort to develop scores that align well with human perceptions of forecast quality. Whilst many of these scores have intuitive interpretations, relatively little is known about how these scores rank different forecasts, and how scores reflect forecast error. We theoretically explore the behaviour of two scores that fall within the `neighbourhood' paradigm of spatial verification; the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Brier Divergence Skill Score (BDnSS). We investigate how each score ranks forecasts with two types of error; errors in the mean frequency (corresponding to intensity or shape errors) and errors in the standard deviation (corresponding to errors in spatial structure, such as blurring or excess noise). We find that under many situations the FSS assigns higher scores to forecasts that over-predict mean frequency, thus theoretically confirming the need to use the FSS with percentile thresholds. Both scores generally assign higher scores to forecasts with lower neighbourhood standard deviation, a reflection of the `double penalty' problem; however, we observe that size of this effect is larger for the BDnSS than the FSS, showing that the FSS under some situations is less susceptible to the double penalty problem than the BDnSS.

Benchmark compression reduces the often prohibitive time and cost of model evaluation by evaluating models on a small benchmark subset that closely matches full-benchmark results. To quantify estimation error, we derive an accurate analytical approximation to the error distribution when estimating full-benchmark scores from a subset, showing that most subsets yield small errors, while a few produce much larger errors, resulting in a long-tailed distribution. This means random sampling alone can achieve surprisingly strong performance with high probability, but remains unstable due to rare large errors. We further show that this instability is inherent to modern foundation models and persists even as more models are evaluated. Based on these findings, we introduce BestRand, a stable and low-cost benchmark compression method that preserves the efficiency of random sampling while substantially reducing its high-error tail. We validate BestRand on 70+ text, multimodal, and agent benchmarks, and further extend it to VLA evaluation. Compared with competitive methods, BestRand reduces high-error risk by 50.2% and estimation error by 16.4% on average, while requiring only 51.3% of the construction cost. It further reduces OOD estimation error by 21.8% on average across score-range, model-family, and temporal shifts. Together, our theory provides practical guidance for understanding and predicting the accuracy and reliability of benchmark compression, while BestRand enables stable and accurate compression at low cost. The code and data are publicly available onhttps://github.com/George-Ling3/BestRand.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

We estimate ([M/H], [alpha/M]) for 48 million giants and dwarfs in low-dust extinction regions from the Gaia DR3 XP spectra by using tree-based machine-learning models trained on APOGEE DR17 and metal-poor star sample from Li et al. The root mean square error of our estimation is 0.0890 dex for [M/H] and 0.0436 dex for [alpha/M], when we evaluate our models on the test data that are not used in training the models. Because the training data is dominated by giants, our estimation is most reliable for giants. The high-[alpha/M] stars and low-[alpha/M] stars selected by our ([M/H], [alpha/M]) show different kinematical properties for giants and low-temperature dwarfs. We further investigate how our machine-learning models extract information on ([M/H], [alpha/M]). Intriguingly, we find that our models seem to extract information on [alpha/M] from Na D lines (589 nm) and Mg I line (516 nm). This result is understandable given the observed correlation between Na and Mg abundances in the literature. The catalog of ([M/H], [alpha/M]) as well as their associated uncertainties are publicly available online.

By design, average precision (AP) for object detection aims to treat all classes independently: AP is computed independently per category and averaged. On one hand, this is desirable as it treats all classes equally. On the other hand, it ignores cross-category confidence calibration, a key property in real-world use cases. Unfortunately, under important conditions (i.e., large vocabulary, high instance counts) the default implementation of AP is neither category independent, nor does it directly reward properly calibrated detectors. In fact, we show that on LVIS the default implementation produces a gameable metric, where a simple, un-intuitive re-ranking policy can improve AP by a large margin. To address these limitations, we introduce two complementary metrics. First, we present a simple fix to the default AP implementation, ensuring that it is independent across categories as originally intended. We benchmark recent LVIS detection advances and find that many reported gains do not translate to improvements under our new evaluation, suggesting recent improvements may arise from difficult to interpret changes to cross-category rankings. Given the importance of reliably benchmarking cross-category rankings, we consider a pooled version of AP (AP-Pool) that rewards properly calibrated detectors by directly comparing cross-category rankings. Finally, we revisit classical approaches for calibration and find that explicitly calibrating detectors improves state-of-the-art on AP-Pool by 1.7 points

Weight oscillation is an undesirable side effect of quantization-aware training, in which quantized weights frequently jump between two quantized levels, resulting in training instability and a sub-optimal final model. We discover that the learnable scaling factor, a widely-used de facto setting in quantization aggravates weight oscillation. In this study, we investigate the connection between the learnable scaling factor and quantized weight oscillation and use ViT as a case driver to illustrate the findings and remedies. In addition, we also found that the interdependence between quantized weights in query and key of a self-attention layer makes ViT vulnerable to oscillation. We, therefore, propose three techniques accordingly: statistical weight quantization (rm StatsQ) to improve quantization robustness compared to the prevalent learnable-scale-based method; confidence-guided annealing (rm CGA) that freezes the weights with high confidence and calms the oscillating weights; and query-key reparameterization (rm QKR) to resolve the query-key intertwined oscillation and mitigate the resulting gradient misestimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these proposed techniques successfully abate weight oscillation and consistently achieve substantial accuracy improvement on ImageNet. Specifically, our 2-bit DeiT-T/DeiT-S algorithms outperform the previous state-of-the-art by 9.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/nbasyl/OFQ.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

RTK-SLAM systems integrate simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) with real-time kinematic (RTK) GNSS positioning, promising both relative consistency and globally referenced coordinates for efficient georeferenced surveying. A critical and underappreciated issue is that the standard evaluation metric, Absolute Trajectory Error (ATE), first fits an optimal rigid-body transformation between the estimated trajectory and reference before computing errors. This so-called SE(3) alignment absorbs global drift and systematic errors, making trajectories appear more accurate than they are in practice, and is unsuitable for evaluating the global accuracy of RTK-SLAM. We present a geodetically referenced dataset and evaluation methodology that expose this gap. A key design principle is that the RTK receiver is used solely as a system input, while ground truth is established independently via a geodetic total station. This separation is absent from all existing datasets, where GNSS typically serves as (part of) the ground truth. The dataset is collected with a handheld RTK-SLAM device, comprising two scenes. We evaluate LiDAR-inertial, visual-inertial, and LiDAR-visual-inertial RTK-SLAM systems alongside standalone RTK, reporting direct global accuracy and SE(3)-aligned relative accuracy to make the gap explicit. Results show that SE(3) alignment can underestimate absolute positioning error by up to 76\%. RTK-SLAM achieves centimeter-level absolute accuracy in open-sky conditions and maintains decimeter-level global accuracy indoors, where standalone RTK degrades to tens of meters. The dataset, calibration files, and evaluation scripts are publicly available at https://rtk-slam-dataset.github.io/.

As a deep learning model, Visual Mamba (VMamba) has a low computational complexity and a global receptive field, which has been successful applied to image classification and detection. To extend its applications, we apply VMamba to crowd counting and propose a novel VMambaCC (VMamba Crowd Counting) model. Naturally, VMambaCC inherits the merits of VMamba, or global modeling for images and low computational cost. Additionally, we design a Multi-head High-level Feature (MHF) attention mechanism for VMambaCC. MHF is a new attention mechanism that leverages high-level semantic features to augment low-level semantic features, thereby enhancing spatial feature representation with greater precision. Building upon MHF, we further present a High-level Semantic Supervised Feature Pyramid Network (HS2PFN) that progressively integrates and enhances high-level semantic information with low-level semantic information. Extensive experimental results on five public datasets validate the efficacy of our approach. For example, our method achieves a mean absolute error of 51.87 and a mean squared error of 81.3 on the ShangHaiTech\_PartA dataset. Our code is coming soon.

A new privacy-preserving federated learning framework allowing laser manufacturers to collaboratively build a robust ML-based laser lifetime prediction model, is proposed. It achieves a mean absolute error of 0.1 years and a significant performance improvement

**Purpose:** Ultrasound biometry is widely used across various clinical applications, including prenatal and cardiac examinations, to obtain quantitative measurements by placing calipers at anatomical landmarks. However, these measurements remain subject to interoperator variability as they rely largely on manual caliper placement. Conventional methods often use specialized prediction heads for different ultrasound tasks, whereas vision-language models offer flexibility through text instructions. However, direct coordinate prediction does not explicitly model spatial likelihood distributions, limiting the representation of localization ambiguity. **Methods:** We propose Kev-Bio, a vision-language model that uses clinical measurement questions to guide ultrasound landmark detection. Inspired by System One decision models, Kev-Bio uses decision representations of the language model to generate queries for each caliper endpoint. These queries are matched against shared dense ultrasound features to produce spatial probability maps, from which landmark coordinates and clinical measurements are derived. The model is trained end-to-end using both landmark localization and clinical measurement losses. **Results:** On the nine-view FU/GU Biometry 2026 dataset, Kev-Bio achieves a mean radial error (MRE) of 22.50 pixels and a clinical measurement mean absolute error (MAE) of 15.38, outperforming the compared baselines in overall performance. **Conclusion:** These results demonstrate the effectiveness of Kev-Bio for ultrasound landmark detection and clinical measurement across different anatomical views. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/moeinheidari7829/Kev-Bio.

Feed-forward 3D foundation models reconstruct perspective scenes in one pass. Satellite photogrammetry needs a different product, one that domain adaptation alone does not deliver: dense surface height in an absolute geodetic frame under non-central rational polynomial cameras (RPCs). Perspective-pretrained features are not reliably observable along RPC height rays, absolute elevation carries a low-order height--datum gauge exchangeable with sensor bias to first order, and monocular and multi-view cues fail in different regions. treats all three. Lightweight ray-consistent adapters make a frozen backbone matchable along native RPC rays. An explicit datum mechanism separates relief from absolute level and is equivariant to the vertical origin by construction, so one trained model serves zero-, one-, and sparse-control inference. Calibrated inverse-variance fusion combines the two relief streams. , our absolute-frame benchmark of eighteen systems across in-domain, cross-dataset, and cross-city tiers, scores absolute placement without registration or test-reference leakage. On 26 held-out US3D tiles, attains 2.99\,m absolute MAE at 91.9% coverage, improves completeness-aware accuracy by 46.4 points over the strongest compliant feed-forward baseline, remains the most accurate such system under both transfer shifts, and runs in 24\,s model-forward time per tile. Code and models will be released at https://github.com/HIT-SIRS/GeoRay

Obesity, the leading cause of many non-communicable diseases, occurs mainly for eating more than our body requirements and lack of proper activity. So, being healthy requires heathy diet plans, especially for patients with comorbidities. But it is difficult to figure out the exact quantity of each nutrient because nutrients requirement varies based on physical and disease conditions. In our study we proposed a novel machine learning based system to predict the amount of nutrients one individual requires for being healthy. We applied different machine learning algorithms: linear regression, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM on fluid and 3 other major micronutrients: carbohydrate, protein, fat consumption prediction. We achieved high accuracy with low root mean square error (RMSE) by using linear regression in fluid prediction, random forest in carbohydrate prediction and LightGBM in protein and fat prediction. We believe our diet recommender system, OBESEYE, is the only of its kind which recommends diet with the consideration of comorbidities and physical conditions and promote encouragement to get rid of obesity.

Instances-reweighted adversarial training (IRAT) can significantly boost the robustness of trained models, where data being less/more vulnerable to the given attack are assigned smaller/larger weights during training. However, when tested on attacks different from the given attack simulated in training, the robustness may drop significantly (e.g., even worse than no reweighting). In this paper, we study this problem and propose our solution--locally reweighted adversarial training (LRAT). The rationale behind IRAT is that we do not need to pay much attention to an instance that is already safe under the attack. We argue that the safeness should be attack-dependent, so that for the same instance, its weight can change given different attacks based on the same model. Thus, if the attack simulated in training is mis-specified, the weights of IRAT are misleading. To this end, LRAT pairs each instance with its adversarial variants and performs local reweighting inside each pair, while performing no global reweighting--the rationale is to fit the instance itself if it is immune to the attack, but not to skip the pair, in order to passively defend different attacks in future. Experiments show that LRAT works better than both IRAT (i.e., global reweighting) and the standard AT (i.e., no reweighting) when trained with an attack and tested on different attacks.

Autoencoders were widely used in many machine learning tasks thanks to their strong learning ability which has drawn great interest among researchers in the field of outlier detection. However, conventional autoencoder-based methods lacked considerations in two aspects. This limited their performance in outlier detection. First, the mean squared error used in conventional autoencoders ignored the judgment uncertainty of the autoencoder, which limited their representation ability. Second, autoencoders suffered from the abnormal reconstruction problem: some outliers can be unexpectedly reconstructed well, making them difficult to identify from the inliers. To mitigate the aforementioned issues, two novel methods were proposed in this paper. First, a novel loss function named Probabilistic Reconstruction Error (PRE) was constructed to factor in both reconstruction bias and judgment uncertainty. To further control the trade-off of these two factors, two weights were introduced in PRE producing Adjustable Probabilistic Reconstruction Error (APRE), which benefited the outlier detection in different applications. Second, a conceptually new outlier scoring method based on mean-shift (MSS) was proposed to reduce the false inliers caused by the autoencoder. Experiments on 32 real-world outlier detection datasets proved the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The combination of the proposed methods achieved 41% of the relative performance improvement compared to the best baseline. The MSS improved the performance of multiple autoencoder-based outlier detectors by an average of 20%. The proposed two methods have the potential to advance autoencoder's development in outlier detection. The code is available on www.OutlierNet.com for reproducibility.

With the volatile and complex nature of financial data influenced by external factors, forecasting the stock market is challenging. Traditional models such as ARIMA and GARCH perform well with linear data but struggle with non-linear dependencies. Machine learning and deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, address these challenges by capturing intricate patterns and long-term dependencies. This report compares ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting the S&P 500 index, a major financial benchmark. Using historical price data and technical indicators, we evaluated these models using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ARIMA model showed reasonable performance with an MAE of 462.1, RMSE of 614, and 89.8 percent accuracy, effectively capturing short-term trends but limited by its linear assumptions. The LSTM model, leveraging sequential processing capabilities, outperformed ARIMA with an MAE of 369.32, RMSE of 412.84, and 92.46 percent accuracy, capturing both short- and long-term dependencies. Notably, the LSTM model without additional features performed best, achieving an MAE of 175.9, RMSE of 207.34, and 96.41 percent accuracy, showcasing its ability to handle market data efficiently. Accurately predicting stock movements is crucial for investment strategies, risk assessments, and market stability. Our findings confirm the potential of deep learning models in handling volatile financial data compared to traditional ones. The results highlight the effectiveness of LSTM and suggest avenues for further improvements. This study provides insights into financial forecasting, offering a comparative analysis of ARIMA and LSTM while outlining their strengths and limitations.

Human health can be critically affected by cardiovascular diseases, such as hypertension, arrhythmias, and stroke. Heart rate and blood pressure are important biometric information for the monitoring of cardiovascular system and early diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. Existing methods for estimating the heart rate are based on electrocardiography and photoplethyomography, which require contacting the sensor to the skin surface. Moreover, catheter and cuff-based methods for measuring blood pressure cause inconvenience and have limited applicability. Therefore, in this thesis, we propose a vision-based method for estimating the heart rate and blood pressure. This thesis proposes a 2-stage deep learning framework consisting of a dual remote photoplethysmography network (DRP-Net) and bounded blood pressure network (BBP-Net). In the first stage, DRP-Net infers remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) signals for the acral and facial regions, and these phase-shifted rPPG signals are utilized to estimate the heart rate. In the second stage, BBP-Net integrates temporal features and analyzes phase discrepancy between the acral and facial rPPG signals to estimate SBP and DBP values. To improve the accuracy of estimating the heart rate, we employed a data augmentation method based on a frame interpolation model. Moreover, we designed BBP-Net to infer blood pressure within a predefined range by incorporating a scaled sigmoid function. Our method resulted in estimating the heart rate with the mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.78 BPM, reducing the MAE by 34.31 % compared to the recent method, on the MMSE-HR dataset. The MAE for estimating the systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were 10.19 mmHg and 7.09 mmHg. On the V4V dataset, the MAE for the heart rate, SBP, and DBP were 3.83 BPM, 13.64 mmHg, and 9.4 mmHg, respectively.

This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solving important problems of classical forecast error functions in extracting information from forecasts to create efficient buy/sell signals in algorithmic investment strategies. Finally, based on the data from two different asset classes (cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and commodities: Crude Oil), we show that the new loss function enables us to select better hyperparameters for the LSTM model and obtain more efficient investment strategies, with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics on the out-of-sample data.

Age estimation has attracted attention for its various medical applications. There are many studies on human age estimation from biomedical images. However, there is no research done on mammograms for age estimation, as far as we know. The purpose of this study is to devise an AI-based model for estimating age from mammogram images. Due to lack of public mammography data sets that have the age attribute, we resort to using a web crawler to download thumbnail mammographic images and their age fields from the public data set; the Digital Database for Screening Mammography. The original images in this data set unfortunately can only be retrieved by a software which is broken. Subsequently, we extracted deep learning features from the collected data set, by which we built a model using Random Forests regressor to estimate the age automatically. The performance assessment was measured using the mean absolute error values. The average error value out of 10 tests on random selection of samples was around 8 years. In this paper, we show the merits of this approach to fill up missing age values. We ran logistic and linear regression models on another independent data set to further validate the advantage of our proposed work. This paper also introduces the free-access Mini-DDSM data set.

Automatic age estimation is widely used for age verification, where input images often vary considerably in resolution. This study evaluates the effect of image resolution on age estimation accuracy using DeepFace and InsightFace. A total of 1000 images from the IMDB-Clean dataset were processed in seven resolutions, resulting in 7000 test samples. Performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Standard Deviation (SD), and Median Absolute Error (MedAE). Based on this study, we conclude that input image resolution has a clear and consistent impact on the accuracy of age estimation in both DeepFace and InsightFace. Both frameworks achieve optimal performance at 224x224 pixels, with an MAE of 10.83 years (DeepFace) and 7.46 years (InsightFace). At low resolutions, MAE increases substantially, while very high resolutions also degrade accuracy. InsightFace is consistently faster than DeepFace across all resolutions.

We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a single hidden layer neural network, with a quadratic activation function after the first layer, and random weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the input dimension and the network width are proportionally large. Recent work [Cui & al '23] established that linear regression provides Bayes-optimal test error to learn such a function when the number of available samples is only linear in the dimension. That work stressed the open challenge of theoretically analyzing the optimal test error in the more interesting regime where the number of samples is quadratic in the dimension. In this paper, we solve this challenge for quadratic activations and derive a closed-form expression for the Bayes-optimal test error. We also provide an algorithm, that we call GAMP-RIE, which combines approximate message passing with rotationally invariant matrix denoising, and that asymptotically achieves the optimal performance. Technically, our result is enabled by establishing a link with recent works on optimal denoising of extensive-rank matrices and on the ellipsoid fitting problem. We further show empirically that, in the absence of noise, randomly-initialized gradient descent seems to sample the space of weights, leading to zero training loss, and averaging over initialization leads to a test error equal to the Bayes-optimal one.

While Minimum Bayes Risk (MBR) decoding using metrics such as COMET or MetricX has outperformed traditional decoding methods such as greedy or beam search, it introduces a challenge we refer to as metric bias. As MBR decoding aims to produce translations that score highly according to a specific utility metric, this very process makes it impossible to use the same metric for both decoding and evaluation, as improvements might simply be due to reward hacking rather than reflecting real quality improvements. In this work we find that compared to human ratings, neural metrics not only overestimate the quality of MBR decoding when the same metric is used as the utility metric, but they also overestimate the quality of MBR/QE decoding with other neural utility metrics as well. We also show that the metric bias issue can be mitigated by using an ensemble of utility metrics during MBR decoding: human evaluations show that MBR decoding using an ensemble of utility metrics outperforms a single utility metric.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

The variational autoencoder (VAE; Kingma, Welling (2014)) is a recently proposed generative model pairing a top-down generative network with a bottom-up recognition network which approximates posterior inference. It typically makes strong assumptions about posterior inference, for instance that the posterior distribution is approximately factorial, and that its parameters can be approximated with nonlinear regression from the observations. As we show empirically, the VAE objective can lead to overly simplified representations which fail to use the network's entire modeling capacity. We present the importance weighted autoencoder (IWAE), a generative model with the same architecture as the VAE, but which uses a strictly tighter log-likelihood lower bound derived from importance weighting. In the IWAE, the recognition network uses multiple samples to approximate the posterior, giving it increased flexibility to model complex posteriors which do not fit the VAE modeling assumptions. We show empirically that IWAEs learn richer latent space representations than VAEs, leading to improved test log-likelihood on density estimation benchmarks.

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near 0 and 1 often lead to high bias and variance. We propose a principled framework for deriving task-specific strictly proper scoring rules by matching the local curvature of the downstream error metric. We apply this to the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimation, deriving a closed-form loss and its corresponding canonical probability mapping that can be readily integrated with any model like a neural network or a gradient boosting algorithm. Extensive evaluations on causal inference benchmarks demonstrate that our tailored objective consistently outperforms standard likelihood-based and covariate-balancing approaches.

K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) is one of the most used ML classifiers. However, if we observe closely, standard distance-weighted KNN and relative variants assume all 'k' neighbors are equally reliable. In heterogeneous feature space, this becomes a limitation that hinders reliability in predicting true levels of the observation. We propose DW-KNN (Double Weighted KNN), a transparent and robust variant that integrates exponential distance with neighbor validity. This enables instance-level interpretability, suppresses noisy or mislabeled samples, and reduces hyperparameter sensitivity. Comprehensive evaluation on 9 data-sets helps to demonstrate that DW-KNN achieves 0.8988 accuracy on average. It ranks 2nd among six methods and within 0.2% of the best-performing Ensemble KNN. It also exhibits the lowest cross-validation variance (0.0156), indicating reliable prediction stability. Statistical significance test confirmed (p < 0.001) improvement over compactness weighted KNN (+4.09\%) and Kernel weighted KNN (+1.13\%). The method provides a simple yet effective alternative to complex adaptive schemes, particularly valuable for high-stakes applications requiring explainable predictions.

In crowd counting, each training image contains multiple people, where each person is annotated by a dot. Existing crowd counting methods need to use a Gaussian to smooth each annotated dot or to estimate the likelihood of every pixel given the annotated point. In this paper, we show that imposing Gaussians to annotations hurts generalization performance. Instead, we propose to use Distribution Matching for crowd COUNTing (DM-Count). In DM-Count, we use Optimal Transport (OT) to measure the similarity between the normalized predicted density map and the normalized ground truth density map. To stabilize OT computation, we include a Total Variation loss in our model. We show that the generalization error bound of DM-Count is tighter than that of the Gaussian smoothed methods. In terms of Mean Absolute Error, DM-Count outperforms the previous state-of-the-art methods by a large margin on two large-scale counting datasets, UCF-QNRF and NWPU, and achieves the state-of-the-art results on the ShanghaiTech and UCF-CC50 datasets. DM-Count reduced the error of the state-of-the-art published result by approximately 16%. Code is available at https://github.com/cvlab-stonybrook/DM-Count.

Backward compatibility of model predictions is a desired property when updating a machine learning driven application. It allows to seamlessly improve the underlying model without introducing regression bugs. In classification tasks these bugs occur in the form of negative flips. This means an instance that was correctly classified by the old model is now classified incorrectly by the updated model. This has direct negative impact on the user experience of such systems e.g. a frequently used voice assistant query is suddenly misclassified. A common reason to update the model is when new training data becomes available and needs to be incorporated. Simply retraining the model with the updated data introduces the unwanted negative flips. We study the problem of regression during data updates and propose Backward Compatible Weight Interpolation (BCWI). This method interpolates between the weights of the old and new model and we show in extensive experiments that it reduces negative flips without sacrificing the improved accuracy of the new model. BCWI is straight forward to implement and does not increase inference cost. We also explore the use of importance weighting during interpolation and averaging the weights of multiple new models in order to further reduce negative flips.

When facing data with imbalanced classes or groups, practitioners follow an intriguing strategy to achieve best results. They throw away examples until the classes or groups are balanced in size, and then perform empirical risk minimization on the reduced training set. This opposes common wisdom in learning theory, where the expected error is supposed to decrease as the dataset grows in size. In this work, we leverage extreme value theory to address this apparent contradiction. Our results show that the tails of the data distribution play an important role in determining the worst-group-accuracy of linear classifiers. When learning on data with heavy tails, throwing away data restores the geometric symmetry of the resulting classifier, and therefore improves its worst-group generalization.

From only positive (P) and unlabeled (U) data, a binary classifier could be trained with PU learning, in which the state of the art is unbiased PU learning. However, if its model is very flexible, empirical risks on training data will go negative, and we will suffer from serious overfitting. In this paper, we propose a non-negative risk estimator for PU learning: when getting minimized, it is more robust against overfitting, and thus we are able to use very flexible models (such as deep neural networks) given limited P data. Moreover, we analyze the bias, consistency, and mean-squared-error reduction of the proposed risk estimator, and bound the estimation error of the resulting empirical risk minimizer. Experiments demonstrate that our risk estimator fixes the overfitting problem of its unbiased counterparts.

Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to life-threatening circumstances. Rapid response to dengue outbreaks is also challenging due to limited information exchange and integration. While timely dengue outbreak forecasts have the potential to prevent such outbreaks, the majority of dengue prediction studies have predominantly relied on data that impose significant burdens on individual countries for collection. In this study, our aim is to improve health equity in resource-constrained countries by exploring the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery as a nontraditional and readily accessible data source. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available and easily obtainable satellite imagery, we present a scalable satellite extraction framework based on Sentinel Hub, a cloud-based computing platform. Furthermore, we introduce DengueNet, an innovative architecture that combines Vision Transformer, Radiomics, and Long Short-term Memory to extract and integrate spatiotemporal features from satellite images. This enables dengue predictions on an epi-week basis. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conducted experiments on five municipalities in Colombia. We utilized a dataset comprising 780 high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images for training and evaluation. The performance of DengueNet was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) metric. Across the five municipalities, DengueNet achieved an average MAE of 43.92. Our findings strongly support the efficacy of satellite imagery as a valuable resource for dengue prediction, particularly in informing public health policies within countries where manually collected data is scarce and dengue virus prevalence is severe.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

In this work, we study an optimizer, Grad-Avg to optimize error functions. We establish the convergence of the sequence of iterates of Grad-Avg mathematically to a minimizer (under boundedness assumption). We apply Grad-Avg along with some of the popular optimizers on regression as well as classification tasks. In regression tasks, it is observed that the behaviour of Grad-Avg is almost identical with Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). We present a mathematical justification of this fact. In case of classification tasks, it is observed that the performance of Grad-Avg can be enhanced by suitably scaling the parameters. Experimental results demonstrate that Grad-Avg converges faster than the other state-of-the-art optimizers for the classification task on two benchmark datasets.

We investigate the convergence rates and data sample sizes required for training a machine learning model using a stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm, where data points are sampled based on either their loss value or uncertainty value. These training methods are particularly relevant for active learning and data subset selection problems. For SGD with a constant step size update, we present convergence results for linear classifiers and linearly separable datasets using squared hinge loss and similar training loss functions. Additionally, we extend our analysis to more general classifiers and datasets, considering a wide range of loss-based sampling strategies and smooth convex training loss functions. We propose a novel algorithm called Adaptive-Weight Sampling (AWS) that utilizes SGD with an adaptive step size that achieves stochastic Polyak's step size in expectation. We establish convergence rate results for AWS for smooth convex training loss functions. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the efficiency of AWS on various datasets by using either exact or estimated loss values.

Deep neural networks are typically trained by optimizing a loss function with an SGD variant, in conjunction with a decaying learning rate, until convergence. We show that simple averaging of multiple points along the trajectory of SGD, with a cyclical or constant learning rate, leads to better generalization than conventional training. We also show that this Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA) procedure finds much flatter solutions than SGD, and approximates the recent Fast Geometric Ensembling (FGE) approach with a single model. Using SWA we achieve notable improvement in test accuracy over conventional SGD training on a range of state-of-the-art residual networks, PyramidNets, DenseNets, and Shake-Shake networks on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet. In short, SWA is extremely easy to implement, improves generalization, and has almost no computational overhead.

A fundamental question in adversarial machine learning is whether a robust classifier exists for a given task. A line of research has made some progress towards this goal by studying the concentration of measure, but we argue standard concentration fails to fully characterize the intrinsic robustness of a classification problem since it ignores data labels which are essential to any classification task. Building on a novel definition of label uncertainty, we empirically demonstrate that error regions induced by state-of-the-art models tend to have much higher label uncertainty than randomly-selected subsets. This observation motivates us to adapt a concentration estimation algorithm to account for label uncertainty, resulting in more accurate intrinsic robustness measures for benchmark image classification problems.

Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can carry greater risks than others in real-world long-tailed problems. For example, misclassifying patients (a tail class) as healthy individuals (a head class) entails far more serious consequences than the reverse scenario. To address this critical issue, we introduce Making Reliable and Flexible Decisions in Long-tailed Classification (RF-DLC), a novel framework aimed at reliable predictions in long-tailed problems. Leveraging Bayesian Decision Theory, we introduce an integrated gain to seamlessly combine long-tailed data distributions and the decision-making procedure. We further propose an efficient variational optimization strategy for the decision risk objective. Our method adapts readily to diverse utility matrices, which can be designed for specific tasks, ensuring its flexibility for different problem settings. In empirical evaluation, we design a new metric, False Head Rate, to quantify tail-sensitivity risk, along with comprehensive experiments on multiple real-world tasks, including large-scale image classification and uncertainty quantification, to demonstrate the reliability and flexibility of our method.

The trade-off between robustness and accuracy has been widely studied in the adversarial literature. Although still controversial, the prevailing view is that this trade-off is inherent, either empirically or theoretically. Thus, we dig for the origin of this trade-off in adversarial training and find that it may stem from the improperly defined robust error, which imposes an inductive bias of local invariance -- an overcorrection towards smoothness. Given this, we advocate employing local equivariance to describe the ideal behavior of a robust model, leading to a self-consistent robust error named SCORE. By definition, SCORE facilitates the reconciliation between robustness and accuracy, while still handling the worst-case uncertainty via robust optimization. By simply substituting KL divergence with variants of distance metrics, SCORE can be efficiently minimized. Empirically, our models achieve top-rank performance on RobustBench under AutoAttack. Besides, SCORE provides instructive insights for explaining the overfitting phenomenon and semantic input gradients observed on robust models. Code is available at https://github.com/P2333/SCORE.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

For safety, medical AI systems undergo thorough evaluations before deployment, validating their predictions against a ground truth which is assumed to be fixed and certain. However, this ground truth is often curated in the form of differential diagnoses. While a single differential diagnosis reflects the uncertainty in one expert assessment, multiple experts introduce another layer of uncertainty through disagreement. Both forms of uncertainty are ignored in standard evaluation which aggregates these differential diagnoses to a single label. In this paper, we show that ignoring uncertainty leads to overly optimistic estimates of model performance, therefore underestimating risk associated with particular diagnostic decisions. To this end, we propose a statistical aggregation approach, where we infer a distribution on probabilities of underlying medical condition candidates themselves, based on observed annotations. This formulation naturally accounts for the potential disagreements between different experts, as well as uncertainty stemming from individual differential diagnoses, capturing the entire ground truth uncertainty. Our approach boils down to generating multiple samples of medical condition probabilities, then evaluating and averaging performance metrics based on these sampled probabilities. In skin condition classification, we find that a large portion of the dataset exhibits significant ground truth uncertainty and standard evaluation severely over-estimates performance without providing uncertainty estimates. In contrast, our framework provides uncertainty estimates on common metrics of interest such as top-k accuracy and average overlap, showing that performance can change multiple percentage points. We conclude that, while assuming a crisp ground truth can be acceptable for many AI applications, a more nuanced evaluation protocol should be utilized in medical diagnosis.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

Evaluating software agents on a full benchmark is expensive. A small task subset can preserve agent rankings while yielding inaccurate scores. Historical responses provide useful structure, but tasks with identical source responses can have different outcomes for a new target agent. We introduce Hierarchical Score Posterior Recovery (HSPR), which combines source-fitted response factors with uncertain group success rates. Observed target outcomes update the posteriors over the target latent state and group rates; posterior-guided acquisition selects subsequent tasks. Its score-based criterion equals the expected one-step reduction in full-score posterior variance. Observed successes and posterior-predictive counts for unqueried tasks yield a full-score posterior. The final estimate uses its median with source-selected calibration. At a 10% task budget on four task banks from the SWE-bench family, HSPR achieves the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) on three banks and the lowest maximum absolute error (MaxErr) on all four among the methods compared. Removing group uncertainty or replacing adaptive queries increases macro MAE in the respective controls. Macro MAE decreases across 5-20% budgets.

Large language models (LLMs) demand substantial computational and memory resources, creating deployment challenges. Quantization-aware training (QAT) addresses these challenges by reducing model precision while maintaining performance. However, the scaling behavior of QAT, especially at 4-bit precision (W4A4), is not well understood. Existing QAT scaling laws often ignore key factors such as the number of training tokens and quantization granularity, which limits their applicability. This paper proposes a unified scaling law for QAT that models quantization error as a function of model size, training data volume, and quantization group size. Through 268 QAT experiments, we show that quantization error decreases as model size increases, but rises with more training tokens and coarser quantization granularity. To identify the sources of W4A4 quantization error, we decompose it into weight and activation components. Both components follow the overall trend of W4A4 quantization error, but with different sensitivities. Specifically, weight quantization error increases more rapidly with more training tokens. Further analysis shows that the activation quantization error in the FC2 layer, caused by outliers, is the primary bottleneck of W4A4 QAT quantization error. By applying mixed-precision quantization to address this bottleneck, we demonstrate that weight and activation quantization errors can converge to similar levels. Additionally, with more training data, weight quantization error eventually exceeds activation quantization error, suggesting that reducing weight quantization error is also important in such scenarios. These findings offer key insights for improving QAT research and development.

Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) has become an important technique for reducing the computational burden of Vision Language Models (VLMs), which play a central role in tasks such as image captioning and visual question answering. Although multiple prior works have proposed efficient SVD variants to enable low-rank operations, we find that in practice it remains difficult to achieve substantial latency reduction during model execution. To address this limitation, we introduce a new computational pattern and apply SVD at a finer granularity, enabling real and measurable improvements in execution latency. Furthermore, recognizing that weight elements differ in their relative importance, we adaptively allocate relative importance to each element during SVD process to better preserve accuracy, then extend this framework with quantization applied to both weights and activations, resulting in a highly efficient VLM. Collectively, we introduce~Weighted SVD (WSVD), which outperforms other approaches by achieving over 1.8times decoding speedup while preserving accuracy. We open source our code at: https://github.com/SAI-Lab-NYU/WSVD{https://github.com/SAI-Lab-NYU/WSVD

Machine-learned interatomic potentials distilled from foundation models enable fast large-scale molecular dynamics (MD), but they can fail locally in chemical environments that their training data did not sample. System-averaged error metrics and small random audits often miss such sparse or isolated failures. Here we use an exact equivariant foundation model, MACE-MPA-0, to check every atom of million-atom production simulations. Reorganizing two-layer MACE inference into a receiver-chunked three-pass schedule that keeps no per-edge intermediates resident reduces the marginal memory per atom 340-fold, evaluates up to 2.86times10^{7} atoms on a single H200 GPU, and supervises 10^{6}-atom trajectories in LAMMPS at 1.3% of the run time. Distilled MACE students run four to nine times slower than NEP89 with 0.95-1.28 times the teacher's force error against density functional theory (DFT). In molten SiO_2, whole-system checks uncover a persistent tail of under-coordinated atoms hidden by the system-averaged error and an isolated, unphysical O-O contact that a 1% random audit misses 94% of the time. On-the-fly retraining on teacher-labelled 13-Å clusters, with the force loss restricted to their inner 6 Å, removes three quarters of the failure tail and the kilobar-level pressure biases in SiO_2 and compressed water; the repair converges to the teacher, not to DFT.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

LLM-as-a-judge has emerged as a cornerstone technique for evaluating large language models by leveraging LLM reasoning to score prompt-response pairs. Since LLM judgments are stochastic, practitioners commonly query each pair multiple times to estimate mean scores accurately. This raises a critical challenge: given a fixed computational budget B, how to optimally allocate queries across K prompt-response pairs to minimize estimation error? % We present a principled variance-adaptive approach leveraging multi-armed bandit theory and concentration inequalities. Our method dynamically allocates queries based on estimated score variances, concentrating resources where uncertainty is highest. Further, our algorithm is shown to achieve a worst-case score-estimation error of Oleft(frac{sum_{i=1^K σ_i^2}{B}}right), σ_i^2 being the unknown score variance for pair i in [K] with near-optimal budget allocation. % Experiments on Summarize-From-Feedback and HelpSteer2 demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms uniform allocation, reducing worst-case estimation error while maintaining identical budgets. Our work establishes a theoretical foundation for efficient LLM evaluation with practical implications for AI safety, model alignment, and automated assessment at scale.

Macro-AUC is the arithmetic mean of the class-wise AUCs in multi-label learning and is commonly used in practice. However, its theoretical understanding is far lacking. Toward solving it, we characterize the generalization properties of various learning algorithms based on the corresponding surrogate losses w.r.t. Macro-AUC. We theoretically identify a critical factor of the dataset affecting the generalization bounds: the label-wise class imbalance. Our results on the imbalance-aware error bounds show that the widely-used univariate loss-based algorithm is more sensitive to the label-wise class imbalance than the proposed pairwise and reweighted loss-based ones, which probably implies its worse performance. Moreover, empirical results on various datasets corroborate our theory findings. To establish it, technically, we propose a new (and more general) McDiarmid-type concentration inequality, which may be of independent interest.

Evaluating large language models (LLMs) on AMLworld's smallest test splits is costly because each of over a million targets requires a separate graph prompt. Sampling reduces this cost, but small balanced subsets change unweighted precision and F1. We introduce AMLworld-Compact, an evaluation set that retains every illicit test transaction and samples benign transactions from supervised-score strata. Its HT-Coreset protocol reduces evaluation targets by 271x and 611x on HI-Small and LI-Small. Horvitz-Thompson weights give unbiased full-test confusion-count estimates for fixed predictions; recall is exact, while precision and F1 are ratio estimates. In a held-out study using Graph Feature Preprocessor (GFP) features, one boosted-tree family defines strata for evaluating the other over 500 draws per configuration. At the released sizes, F1 RMSE is 0.00-2.58 percentage points versus 4.44-7.41 for uniform sampling with HT weights; conservative intervals remain broad. Under the evaluated graph prompts, seven open-weight LLMs have weighted precision near the predict-all-illicit baseline. In an outcome-stratified audit of 1,000 HI-Small few-shot outputs from one run per model, lexical checks pass for 84.5% of correct and 56.2% of incorrect binary verdicts, so these markers do not establish correctness. We release the evaluation sets, construction code, and audit tools at https://huggingface.co/datasets/typhoon-ai/AMLworldCompactEval and https://github.com/nat-nischw/AMLworld-Compact.

The growing number of parameters and computational demands of large language models (LLMs) present significant challenges for their efficient deployment. Recently, there is an increasing interest in quantizing weights to extremely low precision while offsetting the resulting error with low-rank, high-precision error reconstruction terms. The combination of quantization and low-rank approximation is now popular in both adapter-based, parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods such as LoftQ and low-precision inference techniques including ZeroQuant-V2. Usually, the low-rank terms are calculated via the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the weight quantization error, minimizing the Frobenius and spectral norms of the weight approximation error. Recent methods like LQ-LoRA and LQER introduced hand-crafted heuristics to minimize errors in layer outputs (activations) rather than weights, resulting improved quantization results. However, these heuristic methods lack an analytical solution to guide the design of quantization error reconstruction terms. In this paper, we revisit this problem and formulate an analytical framework, named Quantization Error Reconstruction Analysis (QERA), and offer a closed-form solution to the problem. We show QERA benefits both existing low-precision fine-tuning and inference methods -- QERA achieves a fine-tuned accuracy gain of Δ_{acc} = 6.05% of 2-bit RoBERTa-base on GLUE compared to LoftQ; and obtains Δ_{acc} = 2.97% higher post-training quantization accuracy of 4-bit Llama-3.1-70B on average than ZeroQuant-V2 and Δ_{ppl} = - 0.28 lower perplexity on WikiText2 than LQER.

This paper is concerned with inference on the regression function of a high-dimensional linear model when outcomes are missing at random. We propose an estimator that combines a Lasso pilot estimate of the regression function with a bias correction term based on the weighted residuals of the Lasso regression. The weights depend on estimates of the missingness probabilities (propensity scores) and solve a convex optimization program that trades off bias and variance optimally. Provided that the propensity scores can be pointwise consistently estimated at in-sample data points, our proposed estimator for the regression function is asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient among all asymptotically linear estimators. Furthermore, the proposed estimator retains its asymptotic properties even if the propensity scores are estimated by modern machine learning techniques. We validate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator through comparative simulation studies and the real-world problem of inferring the stellar masses of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.

This paper proposes a new metric to measure the calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers, called test-based calibration error (TCE). TCE incorporates a novel loss function based on a statistical test to examine the extent to which model predictions differ from probabilities estimated from data. It offers (i) a clear interpretation, (ii) a consistent scale that is unaffected by class imbalance, and (iii) an enhanced visual representation with repect to the standard reliability diagram. In addition, we introduce an optimality criterion for the binning procedure of calibration error metrics based on a minimal estimation error of the empirical probabilities. We provide a novel computational algorithm for optimal bins under bin-size constraints. We demonstrate properties of TCE through a range of experiments, including multiple real-world imbalanced datasets and ImageNet 1000.

Objective estimators of multimedia quality are often judged by comparing estimates with subjective "truth data," most often via Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) or mean-squared error (MSE). But subjective test results contain noise, so striving for a PCC of 1.0 or an MSE of 0.0 is neither realistic nor repeatable. Numerous efforts have been made to acknowledge and appropriately accommodate subjective test noise in objective-subjective comparisons, typically resulting in new analysis frameworks and figures-of-merit. We take a different approach. By making only basic assumptions, we derive bounds on PCC and MSE that can be expected for a subjective test. Consistent with intuition, these bounds are functions of subjective vote variance. When a subjective test includes vote variance information, the calculation of the bounds is easy, and in this case we say the resulting bounds are "fully data-driven." We provide two options for calculating bounds in cases where vote variance information is not available. One option is to use vote variance information from other subjective tests that do provide such information, and the second option is to use a model for subjective votes. Thus we introduce a binomial-based model for subjective votes (BinoVotes) that naturally leads to a mean opinion score (MOS) model, named BinoMOS, with multiple unique desirable properties. BinoMOS reproduces the discrete nature of MOS values and its dependence on the number of votes per file. This modeling provides vote variance information required by the PCC and MSE bounds and we compare this modeling with data from 18 subjective tests. The modeling yields PCC and MSE bounds that agree very well with those found from the data directly. These results allow one to set expectations for the PCC and MSE that might be achieved for any subjective test, even those where vote variance information is not available.

Several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods that have been successfully used in training deep networks such as RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta, Nadam are based on using gradient updates scaled by square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. In many applications, e.g. learning with large output spaces, it has been empirically observed that these algorithms fail to converge to an optimal solution (or a critical point in nonconvex settings). We show that one cause for such failures is the exponential moving average used in the algorithms. We provide an explicit example of a simple convex optimization setting where Adam does not converge to the optimal solution, and describe the precise problems with the previous analysis of Adam algorithm. Our analysis suggests that the convergence issues can be fixed by endowing such algorithms with `long-term memory' of past gradients, and propose new variants of the Adam algorithm which not only fix the convergence issues but often also lead to improved empirical performance.

Decentralized learning often involves a weighted global loss with heterogeneous node weights λ. We revisit two natural strategies for incorporating these weights: (i) embedding them into the local losses to retain a uniform weight (and thus a doubly stochastic matrix), and (ii) keeping the original losses while employing a λ-induced row-stochastic matrix. Although prior work shows that both strategies target the same λ-weighted global loss, it remains unclear whether the Euclidean-space guarantees are tight and what fundamentally differentiates their behaviors. To clarify this, we develop a weighted Hilbert-space framework L^2(λ;R^d) and obtain convergence rates that are strictly tighter than those from standard Euclidean analysis. In this geometry, the row-stochastic matrix becomes self-adjoint whereas the doubly stochastic one does not, creating additional penalty terms that amplify consensus error, thereby slowing convergence. Consequently, the difference in convergence arises not only from spectral gaps but also from these penalty terms. We then derive sufficient conditions under which the row-stochastic design converges faster even with a smaller spectral gap. Finally, by using a Rayleigh-quotient and Loewner-order eigenvalue comparison, we further obtain topology conditions that guarantee this advantage and yield practical topology-design guidelines.

While neural networks have been remarkably successful in a wide array of applications, implementing them in resource-constrained hardware remains an area of intense research. By replacing the weights of a neural network with quantized (e.g., 4-bit, or binary) counterparts, massive savings in computation cost, memory, and power consumption are attained. To that end, we generalize a post-training neural-network quantization method, GPFQ, that is based on a greedy path-following mechanism. Among other things, we propose modifications to promote sparsity of the weights, and rigorously analyze the associated error. Additionally, our error analysis expands the results of previous work on GPFQ to handle general quantization alphabets, showing that for quantizing a single-layer network, the relative square error essentially decays linearly in the number of weights -- i.e., level of over-parametrization. Our result holds across a range of input distributions and for both fully-connected and convolutional architectures thereby also extending previous results. To empirically evaluate the method, we quantize several common architectures with few bits per weight, and test them on ImageNet, showing only minor loss of accuracy compared to unquantized models. We also demonstrate that standard modifications, such as bias correction and mixed precision quantization, further improve accuracy.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

High-quality and consistent annotations are fundamental to the successful development of robust machine learning models. Traditional data annotation methods are resource-intensive and inefficient, often leading to a reliance on third-party annotators who are not the domain experts. Hard samples, which are usually the most informative for model training, tend to be difficult to label accurately and consistently without business context. These can arise unpredictably during the annotation process, requiring a variable number of iterations and rounds of feedback, leading to unforeseen expenses and time commitments to guarantee quality. We posit that more direct involvement of domain experts, using a human-in-the-loop system, can resolve many of these practical challenges. We propose a novel framework we call Video Annotator (VA) for annotating, managing, and iterating on video classification datasets. Our approach offers a new paradigm for an end-user-centered model development process, enhancing the efficiency, usability, and effectiveness of video classifiers. Uniquely, VA allows for a continuous annotation process, seamlessly integrating data collection and model training. We leverage the zero-shot capabilities of vision-language foundation models combined with active learning techniques, and demonstrate that VA enables the efficient creation of high-quality models. VA achieves a median 6.8 point improvement in Average Precision relative to the most competitive baseline across a wide-ranging assortment of tasks. We release a dataset with 153k labels across 56 video understanding tasks annotated by three professional video editors using VA, and also release code to replicate our experiments at: http://github.com/netflix/videoannotator.

Exponential moving average (EMA) has recently gained significant popularity in training modern deep learning models, especially diffusion-based generative models. However, there have been few theoretical results explaining the effectiveness of EMA. In this paper, to better understand EMA, we establish the risk bound of online SGD with EMA for high-dimensional linear regression, one of the simplest overparameterized learning tasks that shares similarities with neural networks. Our results indicate that (i) the variance error of SGD with EMA is always smaller than that of SGD without averaging, and (ii) unlike SGD with iterate averaging from the beginning, the bias error of SGD with EMA decays exponentially in every eigen-subspace of the data covariance matrix. Additionally, we develop proof techniques applicable to the analysis of a broad class of averaging schemes.

Estimating truncated density models is difficult, as these models have intractable normalising constants and hard to satisfy boundary conditions. Score matching can be adapted to solve the truncated density estimation problem, but requires a continuous weighting function which takes zero at the boundary and is positive elsewhere. Evaluation of such a weighting function (and its gradient) often requires a closed-form expression of the truncation boundary and finding a solution to a complicated optimisation problem. In this paper, we propose approximate Stein classes, which in turn leads to a relaxed Stein identity for truncated density estimation. We develop a novel discrepancy measure, truncated kernelised Stein discrepancy (TKSD), which does not require fixing a weighting function in advance, and can be evaluated using only samples on the boundary. We estimate a truncated density model by minimising the Lagrangian dual of TKSD. Finally, experiments show the accuracy of our method to be an improvement over previous works even without the explicit functional form of the boundary.

This research enhances linear regression models by integrating a Kalman filter and analysing curve areas to minimize loss. The goal is to develop an optimal linear regression equation using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for weight updating. Our approach involves a stepwise process, starting with user-defined parameters. The linear regression model is trained using SGD, tracking weights and loss separately and zipping them finally. A Kalman filter is then trained based on weight and loss arrays to predict the next consolidated weights. Predictions result from multiplying input averages with weights, evaluated for loss to form a weight-versus-loss curve. The curve's equation is derived using the two-point formula, and area under the curve is calculated via integration. The linear regression equation with minimum area becomes the optimal curve for prediction. Benefits include avoiding constant weight updates via gradient descent and working with partial datasets, unlike methods needing the entire set. However, computational complexity should be considered. The Kalman filter's accuracy might diminish beyond a certain prediction range.

Sparse linear regression is one of the most basic questions in machine learning and statistics. Here, we are given as input a design matrix X in R^{N times d} and measurements or labels {y} in R^N where {y} = {X} {w}^* + {xi}, and {xi} is the noise in the measurements. Importantly, we have the additional constraint that the unknown signal vector {w}^* is sparse: it has k non-zero entries where k is much smaller than the ambient dimension. Our goal is to output a prediction vector {w} that has small prediction error: 1{N}cdot |{X} {w}^* - {X} {w}|^2_2. Information-theoretically, we know what is best possible in terms of measurements: under most natural noise distributions, we can get prediction error at most epsilon with roughly N = O(k log d/epsilon) samples. Computationally, this currently needs d^{Omega(k)} run-time. Alternately, with N = O(d), we can get polynomial-time. Thus, there is an exponential gap (in the dependence on d) between the two and we do not know if it is possible to get d^{o(k)} run-time and o(d) samples. We give the first generic positive result for worst-case design matrices {X}: For any {X}, we show that if the support of {w}^* is chosen at random, we can get prediction error epsilon with N = poly(k, log d, 1/epsilon) samples and run-time poly(d,N). This run-time holds for any design matrix {X} with condition number up to 2^{poly(d)}. Previously, such results were known for worst-case {w}^*, but only for random design matrices from well-behaved families, matrices that have a very low condition number (poly(log d); e.g., as studied in compressed sensing), or those with special structural properties.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

Post-training quantization reduces the deployment cost of large language models, yet how severely a quantized model degrades is not determined by bit-width alone. We systematically study weight-only post-training quantization across bit-widths, quantization methods, model scales and downstream tasks on multiple model families. We observe that such degradation varies substantially across these factors: 4-bit quantization usually preserves performance, 2-bit often causes broad degradation, and at 3-bit, degradation becomes apparent but varies markedly with task type, quantization method and model scale. To explain this variability, we use the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to measure how strongly quantization perturbs full-precision representations. We trace degradation back to two linked processes: how quantization errors arise within individual modules, and how they accumulate across layers. First, a source SNR decomposition shows that newly introduced errors depend on three factors: the magnitude of the weight error, the strength of the task-specific signal, and how strongly the quantization error aligns with task-specific activations. Different factors affect these components in distinct ways. Second, a cross-layer propagation analysis shows that these errors can be attenuated, preserved, or amplified as they pass across layers, and that larger models benefit from weaker error amplification. Together, these results establish that quantization degradation is governed by how errors are introduced at the source and how they accumulate across the network.

This paper discusses the weight parametrization of two standard 1-Lipschitz network architectures, the Almost-Orthogonal-Layers (AOL) and the SDP-based Lipschitz Layers (SLL). It examines their impact on initialization for deep 1-Lipschitz feedforward networks, and discusses underlying issues surrounding this initialization. These networks are mainly used in certifiably robust classification applications to combat adversarial attacks by limiting the impact of perturbations on the classification output. Exact and upper bounds for the parameterized weight variance were calculated assuming a standard Normal distribution initialization; additionally, an upper bound was computed assuming a Generalized Normal Distribution, generalizing the proof for Uniform, Laplace, and Normal distribution weight initializations. It is demonstrated that the weight variance holds no bearing on the output variance distribution and that only the dimension of the weight matrices matters. Additionally, this paper demonstrates that the weight initialization always causes deep 1-Lipschitz networks to decay to zero.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Adapting a pre-trained foundation model on downstream tasks should ensure robustness against distribution shifts without the need to retrain the whole model. Although existing weight interpolation methods are simple yet effective, we argue their static nature limits downstream performance while achieving efficiency. In this work, we propose DaWin, a training-free dynamic weight interpolation method that leverages the entropy of individual models over each unlabeled test sample to assess model expertise, and compute per-sample interpolation coefficients dynamically. Unlike previous works that typically rely on additional training to learn such coefficients, our approach requires no training. Then, we propose a mixture modeling approach that greatly reduces inference overhead raised by dynamic interpolation. We validate DaWin on the large-scale visual recognition benchmarks, spanning 14 tasks across robust fine-tuning -- ImageNet and derived five distribution shift benchmarks -- and multi-task learning with eight classification tasks. Results demonstrate that DaWin achieves significant performance gain in considered settings, with minimal computational overhead. We further discuss DaWin's analytic behavior to explain its empirical success.

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, has numerous flaws which we outline, and there is no clear empirical understanding of how its choices affect conclusions in practice, and what recommendations there are to counteract its flaws. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive empirical study of choices in calibration measures including measuring all probabilities rather than just the maximum prediction, thresholding probability values, class conditionality, number of bins, bins that are adaptive to the datapoint density, and the norm used to compare accuracies to confidences. To analyze the sensitivity of calibration measures, we study the impact of optimizing directly for each variant with recalibration techniques. Across MNIST, Fashion MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet, we find that conclusions on the rank ordering of recalibration methods is drastically impacted by the choice of calibration measure. We find that conditioning on the class leads to more effective calibration evaluations, and that using the L2 norm rather than the L1 norm improves both optimization for calibration metrics and the rank correlation measuring metric consistency. Adaptive binning schemes lead to more stablity of metric rank ordering when the number of bins vary, and is also recommended. We open source a library for the use of our calibration measures.

Scale has become a main ingredient in obtaining strong machine learning models. As a result, understanding a model's scaling properties is key to effectively designing both the right training setup as well as future generations of architectures. In this work, we argue that scale and training research has been needlessly complex due to reliance on the cosine schedule, which prevents training across different lengths for the same model size. We investigate the training behavior of a direct alternative - constant learning rate and cooldowns - and find that it scales predictably and reliably similar to cosine. Additionally, we show that stochastic weight averaging yields improved performance along the training trajectory, without additional training costs, across different scales. Importantly, with these findings we demonstrate that scaling experiments can be performed with significantly reduced compute and GPU hours by utilizing fewer but reusable training runs.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

In this paper, we present a simple optimization-based preprocessing technique called Weight Magnitude Reduction (MagR) to improve the performance of post-training quantization. For each linear layer, we adjust the pre-trained floating-point weights by solving an ell_infty-regularized optimization problem. This process greatly diminishes the maximum magnitude of the weights and smooths out outliers, while preserving the layer's output. The preprocessed weights are centered more towards zero, which facilitates the subsequent quantization process. To implement MagR, we address the ell_infty-regularization by employing an efficient proximal gradient descent algorithm. Unlike existing preprocessing methods that involve linear transformations and subsequent post-processing steps, which can introduce significant overhead at inference time, MagR functions as a non-linear transformation, eliminating the need for any additional post-processing. This ensures that MagR introduces no overhead whatsoever during inference. Our experiments demonstrate that MagR achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Llama family of models. For example, we achieve a Wikitext2 perplexity of 5.95 on the LLaMA2-70B model for per-channel INT2 weight quantization without incurring any inference overhead.

Most value function learning algorithms in reinforcement learning are based on the mean squared (projected) Bellman error. However, squared errors are known to be sensitive to outliers, both skewing the solution of the objective and resulting in high-magnitude and high-variance gradients. To control these high-magnitude updates, typical strategies in RL involve clipping gradients, clipping rewards, rescaling rewards, or clipping errors. While these strategies appear to be related to robust losses -- like the Huber loss -- they are built on semi-gradient update rules which do not minimize a known loss. In this work, we build on recent insights reformulating squared Bellman errors as a saddlepoint optimization problem and propose a saddlepoint reformulation for a Huber Bellman error and Absolute Bellman error. We start from a formalization of robust losses, then derive sound gradient-based approaches to minimize these losses in both the online off-policy prediction and control settings. We characterize the solutions of the robust losses, providing insight into the problem settings where the robust losses define notably better solutions than the mean squared Bellman error. Finally, we show that the resulting gradient-based algorithms are more stable, for both prediction and control, with less sensitivity to meta-parameters.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.